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Surveillance and Forecasting Regional Infections

Surveillance is becoming a central tool in governing of Covid-19. Local outbreaks need to be avoided, undetected infection chains provide a vital risk. It is therefore helpful to monitor local infection behaviour and provide an early warning system. We pursue this challenge by combining a nowcasting model with a statistical regression model, which allows to monitor infection behaviour for all districts in Germany, even in particular age groups. The model also allows to produce future predictions for the next 1 to 5 days with sufficient reliability


Preliminary version of the manuscript:

Giacomo De Nicola, Marc Schneble, Göran Kauermann, Ursula Berger (2020): Regional now- and forecasting for data reported with delay: A case study in COVID-19 infections